Physical Oceanography Seminar Series: Dr Zhuomin Chen

Friday, July 30, 2021 at 10:30am to 11:30am

Virtual Event

Title: Seasonal Prediction of Bottom Temperature on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

Speaker: Dr Zhuomin Chen, University of Connecticut

Abstract: Reliable prediction of bottom temperature could improve fisheries stock assessments on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf (NES), where some of the most commercially valuable fisheries are located. We have developed a collection of statistical models that produce seasonal predictions of NES bottom temperature with 1–12 months lead time, given that the current generation of climate modelbased seasonal-to-interannual predictions exhibits limited prediction skill in this continental shelf environment. Variables considered in these prediction models include local persistence of bottom temperature from prior months, bottom temperature from an upstream or nearby region, and large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation or position of the Gulf Stream (GS). Only considering local persistence provides significant skill for lead times up to ∼5 months in the Mid-Atlantic Bight and up to ∼10 months in the Gulf of Maine, although the skill varies by season. Using upstream or nearby bottom temperature and the GS index both generally improve the prediction skill. However, the GS index does not provide higher prediction skill than those upstream or nearby bottom temperatures. A simplified statistical model has been developed, which can be tailored to fisheries management on the NES.

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Graduate School of Oceanography



Graduate School of Oceanography
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